PLAY WITH TVG, SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 24, 2018

TO-DO LIST: WIN

We know your weekend is filled with nothing but countless chores and errands, which is why we always preview in this e-newsletter the best races on Saturday to give you a head start with your handicapping so you can play and win with TVG, America’s leading horse racing network and wagering website! For exclusive analysis and selections for the $150,000 Daytona (G3) at Santa Anita, click here. For exclusive analysis and selections for the $100,000 Hal’s Hope (G3) at Gulfstream Park, click here. For exclusive analysis and selections for the $125,000 Gazebo at Oaklawn Park, click here. For exclusive analysis and selections for the $100,000 Franklin Square at Aqueduct, click here.

YOU CAN’T WIN IF YOU DON’T PLAY

No matter how busy you may be, definitely carve out some time this Saturday to play in our FREE Super 8 contest! That’s because if you pick the winners (one choice per race) in all eight designated races, you’ll win $100,000! But don’t despair, if you don’t correctly select all eight winners, consolation pools exist for those players who get five or more correct. Visit TVG.com or 4NJBets.com for more information.

ON THE SATURDAY NIGHT MENU

Four of the nine races on the Sam Houston card this Saturday (first post 7:00 pm ET) are stakes races, culminating with the $100,000 MAXXAM Gold Cup, so it’s the perfect opportunity to take advantage of our exclusive Money Back Special, which means we’ll automatically refund your first win wager (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third all night long. But you must opt-in first at TVG.com or 4NJBets.com, so do that now, and then get your money back if the horse you wager on to win finishes second or third!

THE PERFECT COMBINATION

Every day this month, you can win even more with our 10% Exacta Bonu$ Bucks$ offer on select tracks (for example, Friday is Gulfstream Park). So opt-in now at TVG.com or 4NJBets.com to be eligible to earn our exclusive Bonu$ Buck$ (up to a maximum of $100 per day and $2,800 for the month).

WE’RE WAITING FOR YOU

With so many ways to watch TVG, TVG2 and TVG Racebook, there’s never been a better time in racing history to watch and wager on every race, every day! On demand examples include TVG.com (and 4NJBets.com), Watch TVG (Amazon, Apple TV and Roku) as well as TVG and 4NJBets.com Mobile!

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DEALING WITH LATE SCRATCHES AND CHANGES

Are late scratches under-accounted for? Yes, absolutely! Take advantage of other bettors’ confusion or misguided reliance on morning line odds by focusing on any contender that becomes a standout after late scratches, and get a leg up on the players that made their decisions the night before and/or earlier in the day.

How many times does this happen? You handicap a full field on the morning of a race. There are:

– 16 entries, with 12 starters and 4 Also Eligibles (AEs).

– At noon, three late scratches are announced from the main field, BUT

– Three of the four AEs also decide to scratch anyway.

– Thus, 10 runners remain.

– But the original morning line odds reflect a comparison of 16 runners, yet 40% of the field is now not competing.

This is still a fairly large field, but with enough pieces of the puzzle missing to make it worth taking a fresh look at the situation.

What hasn’t changed? A fit contender is still a fit contender. A horse suited to the distance is still suited to the distance. A good workout is still a good workout.  Barring late rider changes, the connections are unchanged. This data can be studied the night before without concern about the potential effects of late scratches.

And what has changed due to the late scratches?

Pace, post position, fair odds and exotics pay out value.

Pace scenarios must be re-evaluated. The original field may have included three or four speed horses with a speed duel anticipated. Each speed horse would be at a disadvantage, either involved in an early chase or forced to rate to avoid the duel. But now a single speedster may remain after late scratches, resulting in a completely new pace scenario and much improved chances for the surviving entry.

Post positions must also be re-evaluated. It’s an obvious but often overlooked fact that if the inside horses scratch, a mid-pack runner could now be starting in the rail post position, while a horse with a terrible outside post may now find itself with a much better chance from a mid-gate post position. In the above scenario, #12 could be breaking from post 9, and #16 could draw in as post 10.

And most importantly, when the morning line favorite scratches, the whole situation changes. The entire race must be re-evaluated from both the perspective of how the race will unfold and how the public will bet without the morning line favorite.

But people still cling to the morning line as a guide, even though the situation has drastically changed and the morning line odds are now horribly off base!

Of the remaining contenders, bet any that become standouts after the scratches. Take a fresh look at the remaining entrants. Set aside your previous conclusions and re-evaluate the race based only on the horses that will enter the starting gate.

Requirements to play this angle:

– Late scratches occur, sometimes in large numbers due to weather.

– Some handicapping variables are not affected by late scratches like evaluating fitness, workouts, distance and the horse’s connections.

– However, pace, post position, fair odds and exotics value are affected by a shrinking field.

– If the morning line favorite scratches, the entire race must be re-evaluated from both the perspective of how the race will unfold and how to bet.

Be sure to check out Dean Arnold’s handicapping book, A Bettor Way, on sale now through Amazon.

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RECAP OF SELECTIONS FROM 02/10/18

San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita: The good news is that I didn’t get sucked into the AX MAN pre-race hype, who finished off the board at 2/5. But the bad news is I also didn’t isolate the winner (KANTHAKA, $24.20), who is now a perfect two-for-two at the quirky seven furlong distance.

Santa Maria (G2) at Santa Anita: As expected, UNIQUE BELLA ($2.20) could not have been more impressive in her 2018 debut. And when MOPOTISM finished second, that made my $50 straight exacta worth $130.00, demonstrating how you can turn a 1/9 shot into a decent profit by aggressively playing the exotic pools.

Gulfstream Park Turf (G1) at Gulfstream Park: Live by the exotic pools and die by the exotic pools. That was the case in this race as I had HEART TO HEART ($7.20) as my top selection, but got split in the exactas when KURILOV beat out HI HAPPY for second.

Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay: I was concerned FLAMEAWAY ($22.60) could be the controlling speed of the race, which is why I listed him as my longshot value play. But unfortunately, I did not recommend any wagers on the son of Scat Daddy, so I’ve got absolutely nothing to show for that momentary flash of brilliance! LOL

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$150,000 Daytona (G3) – Santa Anita

Race 4 (Saturday, February 24, 2018: 5:00 p.m./ET; 2:00 p.m./PT)

About six and one-half furlongs on turf (four-year-olds and upward)

Trainer Peter Miller has become a dominant force in Southern California and is represented by three of the seven runners ready to rock and roll down the hillside turf course in the feature race at Santa Anita this Saturday, the Daytona Stakes (G3). Miller’s most notable entrant is STORMY LIBERAL, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) winner, making his 2018 debut. Let’s analyze the field beginning with the inside post position:

#1 FABOZZI hasn’t been seen since a fourth place finish going a mile in the Thunder Road Stakes (G3) last April. Two of this gelding’s three lifetime wins have come on this Santa Anita turf course, but note he finished fourth (beaten two lengths) to #7 STORMY LIBERAL and #6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC in a downhill sprint last year. Even though his trainer, Mark Glatt, wins at a high 26% clip with his trainees making their first start off a layoff longer than 180 days, it won’t be an easy task to win this race off the lengthy vacation.

#2 TOMBELAINE ships in to Southern California for trainer Catherine Day-Phillips off a fourth place finish in the five-furlong Gulfstream Park Sprint, in which the second place finisher in that race came back to win a stake. Hall of Famer Mike Smith takes the call. Interesting.

#3 WHAT A VIEW makes his 2018 debut after an eight-and-a-half month break for the Kenneth Black barn. This gelding has plenty of class, having won the Frank Kilroe Mile (G1) in 2016 and only losing by a head in the 2017 edition. He seems to want to run a bit farther than this and according to Black, this is a prep run for a route race down the road.

#4 CONQUEST TSUNAMI comes off a snappy four-and-a-half length win going down the hill in his So. Cal debut last month. Not often you see runners winning by that large of a margin on the turf, and now he makes his second start on the course while facing a deeper field. Tougher spot, yes, but major player off the big win nonetheless.

#5 CALCULATOR ran outstanding in the Clockers Corner Stakes on January 28, setting fast fractions early and motoring home late for a fast-paced win. He is undefeated (three-for-three) when racing down the hill. Another contender from the Peter Miller barn.

#6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC makes his second start off a six-month break for trainer Bob Hess Jr. This gelding put up a good effort in the Clockers Corner, sitting off the pace before making a nice run down the lane to complete the trifecta. He hits the board a lot more often than he wins and keep in mind that he has finished behind CALCULATOR in both starts they’ve met.

#7 STORMY LIBERAL makes his 2018 debut and rounds out the trio of runners for trainer Peter Miller. This guy won a thriller two starts ago, scoring at 30/1 in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) before traveling to Hong Kong one month later and finishing well behind in a Group 1. He is seven-for-12 down the hill, but how much did the Hong Kong trip take out of him?

SELECTIONS

1. #4 CONQUEST TSUNAMI – Big win last month on this course.
2. #5 CALCULATOR – Three for three down the hill.
3. #6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC – Consistent sort a good one to use in exotics.

LONGSHOT VAUE PLAY- #2 TOMBELAINE – Shipper merits respect.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my four selections in exactas and trifectas and make a $2 win bet on my longshot value play.

 BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$2 Exacta Box: #2 TOMBELAINE and #4 CONQUEST TSUNAMI and #5 CALCULATOR and #6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC ($24).

$1 Trifecta Box: #2 TOMBELAINE and #4 CONQUEST TSUNAMI and #5 CALCULATOR and #6 PERFECTLY MAJESTIC ($24).

$2 Win: #2 TOMBELAINE

(Bankroll at -$184.00 after 2018 Week #2 Based on $50 Wagers; -$70.00 last Newsletter).

 

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$100,000 Hal’s Hope (G3) – Gulfstream Park

Saturday, February 24, 2018 (5:35 p.m./ET: 2:35 p.m./PT)

One mile on the main track (four-year-olds and upward)

IRISH WAR CRY, considered one of the top three-year-olds of 2017, makes his 2018 debut for trainer Graham Motion in this race. Also making their first starts of 2018 in this spot are multiple stakes placed runner ECONOMIC MODEL for trainer Chad Brown and New York-bred star SEND IT IN, while 2017 Rebel Stakes (G2) winner MALAGACY looks to rebound after a second place finish in his 2018 debut. Plenty of quality runners in this one:

#1 IRISH WAR CRY hasn’t been seen since a 14-length loss in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) in September. This colt ran the best race of his life over this track last year, when he earned a 101 Beyer while defeating Grade I winners GUNNEVERA and CLASSIC EMPIRE in the Holy Bull (G2). He usually does his best work when racing on the lead, so wouldn’t be surprised to see this guy get aggressive from the inside post and try to steal it up front.

#2 ECONOMIC MODEL is another one that hasn’t raced since the fall. Four months ago, the Chad Brown trainee defeated five other rivals in an allowance race at Aqueduct. This racer has some back class, as evidenced by his second place finish in the Kings Bishop (G1) and third in the Bold Ruler (G3). Both races were run at seven furlongs, so he should love this one-turn mile. Contender.

#3 CONQUEST BIG E put up a big effort in his last start, finishing second at 15/1 behind TOMMY MACHO in the Fred Hooper Stakes (G2) over this track. The field he faces here isn’t any easier.

#4 TOWER OF TEXAS makes his first start on dirt. The son of STREET SENSE has only run once this year, that race resulting in a length-and-a-half score in a turf stake at the Fair Grounds. Taking a ‘wait and see’ approach to see how he takes to the new surface.

#5 QUIJOTE has been well beaten in his last two races, both against easier company, and will need to improve significantly to be competitive in this race.

#6 MALAGACY made his first start off a nine-month layoff in his last appearance, an allowance race over this track, and finished a ok second. That said, there is reason to believe he may take a step forward with a race under his belt. Last year, this son of SHACKLEFORD won two races over this track and also won the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn. Shouldn’t be completely ignored.

#7 GIUSEPPE THE GREAT adds blinkers for trainer Nick Zito after a 10 length loss in the Fred Hooper (G3) last month. He’ll need to turn the tables on #3 CONQUEST BIG E while defeating some new legit stakes horses signed on here.

#8 SEND IT IN was a half-length winner of the Excelsior (G3) at Aqueduct last April while earning a sky high 119 Beyer Speed Figure. He hasn’t raced since then, but trainer Todd Pletcher strikes at a high 33% win rate with his trainees making their first start off a layoff longer than 180 days. Two of his five workouts on the page are bullets and Pletcher’s go-to rider John Velazquez is signed on to ride. Things to like here.

SELECTIONS

1. #2 ECONOMIC MODEL – Talented horse makes his four-year-old debut.
2. #1 IRISH WAR CRY – Should appreciate class relief.
3. #6 MALAGACY – One of two Pletcher runners signed up.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #8 SEND IT IN – First start in South Florida.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$50 Win: #2 ECONOMIC MODEL

(Bankroll at -$184.00 after 2018 Week #2 Based on $50 Wagers; -$70.00 last Newsletter).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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$125,000 Gazebo – Oaklawn Park

Race 8 (Saturday, February 24, 2018: 5:38 p.m./ET: 2:38 p.m./PT)
Six furlongs on the main track (three-year-olds)

Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has a strong 1-2 punch in the feature race on Oaklawn’s Saturday afternoon card. Will Asmussen add another stakes win to his 2018 season or will trainers’ with the four other entrants in the race play spoiler? Let’s try to answer that question:

#1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE broke his maiden for a $20K tag five starts ago but has failed to beat winners since that victory. However, he has run second on three separate occasions in allowance optional claiming races and stacks up with most of these in terms of speed figures. May be best used underneath in exotics, if anywhere.

#2 DIRECT DIAL won the Texas Stallion Stakes at Retama Park in November before returning to the races three months later and running second as the odds on favorite in the Groovy Stakes at Sam Houston. Maybe he needed that last race off the brief break, and note ‘Dial’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, wins at a 21% clip with runners making their second start off a layoff between 45-180 days.

#3 MITOLE has run three career races and every start has been better than the last, culminating in his most recent race with a dominating ten-length win, defeating nine others rivals while earning a 96 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. The one to beat off the ‘freakish’ maiden score for the other Asmussen runner.

#4 BOURNE IN NIXA broke his maiden in his second lifetime start and came back to win an allowance race smartly at Churchill. In his most recent start, the Big Drama Stakes at Delta Downs, this Steve Margolis trainee finished sixth and last going seven furlongs. Reasons to believe he can run better than his last include maybe he didn’t like the bullring configuration of Delta.

#5 INGE ran third, beaten three lengths, over the sloppy Oaklawn dirt last time out. Interestingly enough, he finished behind #1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE that day. Now he makes his first start over a (projected) fast dirt track. On paper, it looks like he needs to run a bit faster than he has been to be competitive, but he is conditioned by a trainer (Norman McKnight) that wins at a 32% clip.

#6 WILD CARMELO was beaten 14 lengths in his last start, an allowance race over this track. His best race to date came against allowance company at Remington Park, where he finished two lengths ahead of #1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE in December.

SELECTIONS

1. #3 MITOLE – Maiden win was impressive.
2. #4 BOURNE IN NIXA – Cuts back in distance.
3. #2 DIRECT DIAL – Second off the brief layoff.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY-#1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE – Longshot to consider in exotics. 

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll key my top pick over my other three selections in exactas and trifectas.

BANKORLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$10 Exacta: #3 MINOLE over #2 DIRECT DIAL and #4 BOURNE IN NIXA ($20).

$5 Trifecta: #3 MINOLE over #1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE and #2 DIRECT DIAL and #4 BOURNE IN NIXA ($30).

(Bankroll at -$184.00 after 2018 Week #2 Based on $50 Wagers; -$70.00 last Newsletter).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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$100,000 Franklin Square – Aqueduct

Race 3 (Saturday, February 24, 2018: 1:50 p.m./ET; 10:50 a.m./PT)

Six furlongs on the main track (three-year-old New York-bred fillies)

The Franklin Square, a New York-bred stake for three-year-old fillies, gets to showcase runners sired by relatively new New York stallions TRINNIBERG, TEUFLESBERG, and EMCEE. Let’s take a look at each runner in the field and try to come up with a winner:

#1 VELVET TRINNI broke her maiden last time out, defeating eight other runners in a maiden $40K claimer for New-York bred fillies. Even though this daughter of TRINNIBERG just recently picked up her first career win, she ran fifth in a stake two starts ago to #5 AUNT BABE, who finished almost five lengths ahead of this gal. An exotics placing appears to be her ceiling unless she takes a major step forward.

#2 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE was beaten two lengths in her most recent start, an allowance optional claiming event. That said, she encountered some trouble in the race, stumbling at the start before getting bumped around at the eighth pole. In with a chance for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, who is hitting at a 31% win clip this Aqueduct Winter meet.

#3 TRINNI NINJA is a maiden facing winners. After finishing second in a New York-bred maiden special weight at 115/1, this gal ran fourth, beaten nine lengths, in the East View Stakes. Outclassed. 

#4 BEAUTIFUL BUZZ broke her maiden stylishly in her career debut and crossed the wire second in an allowance optional claiming event last month, which was her most recent afternoon appearance. Both career runs were solid. One to consider.

#5 AUNT BABE won the New York Stallion Series Stakes at 39/1 in December before finishing eighteen lengths behind the winner in a stake last month. That most recent poor effort came routing, so maybe this filly just wants to sprint. Five career starts to her name with two wins and three off the board finishes designates an inconsistent filly.

#6 MY ROXY GIRL cuts back in distance after a neck win against open starter allowance company at Aqueduct. She loves the Aqueduct dirt, too, having won three races from five career starts over the surface. Good enough to be competitive with her best effort.

 

SELECTIONS

1. #6 MY ROXY GIRL – Loves AQU.
2. #2 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE – Troubled trip last time.
3. #4 BEAUTIFUL BUZZ – Consistent runner merits respect.

LONGSHOT VALUE PLAY- #5 AUNT BABE – Only stake winner in the field.

WAGERING STRATEGY

I’ll box my top three picks in exactas as well as make a straight win bet on my top choice.

BANKROLL PLAY ($50 Budget)

$20 Win: #6 MY ROXY GIRL

$5 Exacta Box: #2 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE and #4 BEAUTIFUL BUZZ and #6 MY ROXY GIRL ($30).

(Bankroll at -$184.00 after 2018 Week #2 Based on $50 Wagers; -$70.00 last Newsletter).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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